The Canberra Press Gallery are rejoicing over what seems to be a turnaround in the fortunes of Julia Gillard and Labor. There have been several complimentary pieces and the consensus is that the next election is not cut and dried and that Gillard and Labor may very well win. Gillard is experiencing her second wind. A week is a long time in politics, and Tony Abbott's absence from Australia has been a major political blunder with the government hitting the ground running with nobody being able to respond. It is a very different political landscape now than earlier this year when Gillard couldn't put a foot right.
Both the major opinion polls have painted a different picture of the extent of Gillard's revival. The Herald Neilsen Poll has the opposition ten points in front on a two party preferred basis, while Newspoll has them much closer. Nevertheless, it appears that the 20 point margin earlier this year has disappeared.
Observers of political history in Australia have seen this trend before. It happened with Fraser in the late 1970s, Hawke in the mid 1980s, as well as Keating and Howard. That trend is a government and prime minister experiencing a first round of unpopularity and poor opinion polls, then recovering and winning an election, sometimes more than one election. During 1979 the Fraser government's polling was diabolical but Fraser went on to win the 1980 election. The Hawke government was politically dead in 1986 but recovered during the first part of 1987 to win two more elections. The Keating government was extremely unpopular in 1992 but recovered to win the 1993 election. Similarly John Howard's government was gone in late 2000 and early 2001 due to the backlash over the introduction of the GST, but they staged a major turnaround to win two more elections. And it wasn't due to the Tampa sailing in and the so-called demonising of asylum seekers as the Left has tried to claim over the years, the shift in opinion began months before that. Now it has happened to Gillard. For some reason the public feels guilty if a government and prime minister experience poor polling the first time around and changes their opinion. It is only when the second wave of unpopularity happens that a government loses an election.
As things have transpired, Gillard has benefitted from two things which have coincided - the foreign affairs agenda currently being played out and the timing - Gillard hosting the Queen and Obama, the APEC meeting in Hawaii, Princess Mary arriving next week and the approaching Christmas/New Year break when Australia goes to the beach and politics takes a break. Gillard has been looking like an international stateswoman with domestic politics (including the carbon tax) being put on the back burner. At the same time the opposition has been left floundering with their leader far from home and receiving almost zero coverage. It is alarming how the opposition has been left virtually mute whilst Abbott has been overseas. Even the coverage of Abbott in Afghanistan hasn't boosted his stocks as he has been seen as simply following in Gillard's footsteps - Gillard visited the troops a week earlier. He needs to come home, get back into the Budgy Smugglers and get back on TV again.
In this environment the opposition should be riding high. The Qantas dispute and the Spanish Inquisition CEO Allan Joyce was subjected to by former union thugs at the Senate hearing should have been devastating for the government. Instead it seems to have had the opposite effect. Similarly the carbon tax seems to have run out of steam, despite the issue still dominating talkback radio.
All of this has been manna from Heaven for Gillard. The challenge to her leadership has been put on hold indefinitely and Labor has been able to regroup and recover. People are now talking about Labor ditching The Greens and being able to go it alone again. The only thing that might harm Labor in the next month or so is the national conference in December, but there are signs that the expected tanties might not happen and secret deals are being done behind the scenes to ensure a smooth event. Gillard will get her way on selling uranium to India, and the gay marriage issue will go nowhere even if the party changes its policy to supporting it. The opposition opposes gay marriage and Labor members will be given a conscience vote with the Catholic Right ensuring the Marriage Act won't be changed when it comes to a vote in the parliament. Like euthanasia, gay marriage will remain illegal in this country despite widespread public support.
All in all it appears that politics has been transformed, and next year will be a whole new ball game. The challenge for the opposition is whether they will be able to get on top again in time for the next election. The Gillard/Brown government isn't a total write-off yet - they still have an outside chance of winning - and whether we have a fresh start or continue the political and economic malaise under Labor is now in the lap of the gods.
